The future of work – A flicker of a silver lining
- Sarah Hudleston
With a disastrously high unemployment rate and inequality, South Africa has a mountain to climb, but there is hope.
In February 2023, during the 36th Ordinary Session of the African Union (AU) Assembly in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres told Africa's leaders that despite its challenges, the continent’s abundant natural resources, diverse cultures, and youthful population, could see the 21st Century being "Africa's Century".
Is Guterres’ optimism misplaced? With African countries being among the most unequal on earth, can his prophecy be realised? How can Africa thrive when, in South Africa, one of the most developed countries on the continent, the official unemployment rate currently sits at 32%, although pundits believe it could be closer to 50%? The question is, how does a country claw its way back from this disastrous statistic, and what are the dangers that could see the unemployment figure soar even higher?
The answer to all these questions may lie in recent positive engagements with world bodies such as the United Nations (UN) and the Group of 20 (G20).
In November 2024, South Africa took a step closer to playing a bigger role in the world order when it took over the chair of the G20 from Brazil. The G20 is an intergovernmental group of countries and includes the European Union and African Union. It focuses on addressing global issues such as international financial stability, climate change and sustainability. In taking the rotating chair of the G20 until the end of 2025, South Africa has a golden opportunity to set the stage for national growth, believes Professor Imraan Valodia, Wits Pro Vice-Chancellor: Climate, Sustainability and Equality.
“South Africa will get to set the agenda focusing on three main areas, namely poverty, inequality, and climate change. All these factors impact the Global South’s ability to thrive,” says Valodia, who along with Dr Kenneth Creamer from the Wits School of Economics and Finance, has been appointed to the Presidential Economic Advisory Council.
Levelling the playing fields
Valodia’s optimism is shared by Dr Bob Wekesa, Acting Director of the African Centre for the Study of the United States, who also believes that there is hope for Africa.
“This was evident during the Summit for the Future, a side event during the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2024,” says Wekesa.
A result of this summit was the Pact for the Future, in which world leaders resolved that African countries should have a greater voice in sustainable development and financing for development, international peace and security, science, youth and innovation, in digital cooperation, and in transforming global governance.
“It is accepted that there are inequalities based on how the world is governed, more specifically in terms of the global financial institutions, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization (WTO),” says Wekesa. “These institutions are in the hands of the West, or rather, the Global North. There has been a push for the reform of these institutions because they play a massive role in terms of the allocation of finances that support economies that should in turn be supporting economies in the Global South.”
Now, it is hoped, Africa will be considered when these financial institutions are planning their budgets for grants and loans, and countries such as South Africa and others in the Global South can benefit equally.
“This will make a massive difference on the continent because, in terms of economic engagement, it will percolate down to the lowest levels in cities, villages, rural areas, and even in informal settlements,” he says.
At the Rio de Janeiro summit in November 2024, the African Union was represented at the G20 for the first time, thanks to the lobbying of efforts of South Africa.
“So now, we actually have the G21,” says Wekesa. “And with South Africa chairing, we can expect much work being done to level the playing field in terms of access to resources, including access to finance and better terms of trade. I expect that there will be intensive discussions around reform of the World Bank and the WTO so that African countries can do more with their raw materials and reap the rewards of beneficiation,” he says.
Under new management: a new SA-US dynamic
However, it will not be all plain sailing. Africa faces some harsh challenges. In February 2024 a bi-partisan bill was introduced in the United States Congress calling for a comprehensive review of US-South Africa relations after South Africa brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing that country of genocide in Gaza. The ICJ ruling found it plausible that Israel, a major US ally, has indeed committed acts of genocide and now the bill threatens South Africa’s benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows certain sub-Saharan countries duty-free access to US markets for a range of products.
If South Africa were to lose its AGOA benefits, it could affect key industries, including the automotive sector, agriculture and agribusiness, mining and minerals, textiles and apparel, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. It would also impact the exports of renewable energy equipment, wine, and the export of machinery and other equipment. AGOA’s benefits have supported thousands of jobs across these industries, while small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have also been able to gain better access to international markets.
John Stremlau, Visiting Professor in the Department of International Relations at Wits, believes that South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) should not hold its breath waiting for US President Elect, Donald Trump to act on AGOA, but should rather place its faith in BRICS – an intergovernmental organisation that includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and should be a friend to all.
“Trump’s first administration was chaotic, vindictive, and corrupt. His interest in Africa was negligible, and he allowed his diplomats just to continue their work. To call him an unreliable partner is an understatement,” says Stremlau.
South African president Cyril Ramaphosa announced at the G20 summit in Brazil that Trump would be part of a troika – a G20 partnership comprising the USA, South Africa, and Brazil – and that these three countries in effect would forge a close alliance. However Stremlau is not betting on Trump even attending next year’s summit when South Africa hands the G20 chair over to the US. On the other hand, Stremlau does have great faith in South Africa’s GNU, which, he believes, seems to be focused on driving growth.
The chicken and the egg
One of the major challenges that South Africa needs to overcome in its quest to stimulate economic growth is the impact of the rise of the global digital economy. While it may require fewer, highly skilled workers, it could nevertheless stimulate South Africa’s struggling township economies. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the proliferation of digital technologies, it was thought that technology-driven jobs would help boost our economy and reshape the world of work but, ultimately, it is the other way round, and we first need economic growth to drive job creation.
Valodia believes that the global reality, particularly in the Global South, is that physical work needs to continue to be the main source of livelihoods.
“Although technology is having huge impacts on the world of work, it is not this grand emancipatory idea that we can all be freed by virtue of the way in which the management of work is changing,” says Valodia. “There are real concerns about how some of the more exploitative elements of labour markets are being integrated into digital work platforms”.
While some jobs will become obsolete, they will be replaced by others. Valodia believes that the evolution of work will be more of a churning process than the idea that technology will kill employment as we know it. “Young people, as they become more technically able, will use technology to make their work easier, but not to supplant their intellectual abilities,” he says.
Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS) Research Director Dr Ruth Castel-Branco says that there is much excitement about digital technology and its potential to reshape the world of work and create employment opportunities.
"There’s this sense that digital technologies may help countries to leapfrog the process of industrialisation and become service-driven economies,” she says.
However, these services usually comprise online-based platforms that perform roles such as editing, translating, or data cleaning, or location-based platforms that mediate relations between workers, customers, and intermediary providers across a wide range of sectors, from transportation to domestic work.
Castel-Branco also says that these types of jobs are unsustainable because companies are growing based on venture capital funds from the Global North, which ultimately reproduces unequal relations between the North and South.
Procurement and the township economies
“In effect, it’s a form of digital colonialism. The expansion of digital technologies has happened on the back of neoliberal reforms that undermined the nature of public provisioning. The liberalisation of economies has also made it more difficult for governments to collect taxes from international corporations,” she says.
Ebrahim-Khalil Hassen, of the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) at Wits, specialises in research on how technological changes, economic policies, and social dynamics affect labour markets and employment trends. This research highlights the need for the adoption of proactive policies that can support job security and growth.
Currently, his particular focus is the public procurement system and tackling unemployment, especially in the township economies. “The Gauteng government has a policy that 60% of all government procurement should come from township businesses, but in reality, less than 10% does,” says Hassen.
The GCRO has been working with government to understand the nature of township businesses and to examine the opportunities to expand public procurement in those areas, providing an entry point for businesses to be part of a larger market.
“I only hope the government is having sensible conversations around introducing grants for the unemployed and job seekers,” says Hassen. “We are also beginning to appreciate the potential of cities as economic centres that can be used to generate economic growth and employment.”
With its new role and standing in the international community, and the growth of the digital economy, South Africa is poised to drive economic growth by exploiting new international and regional trade relationships, and exploiting digital and remote working models, creating more much needed job opportunities here at home.
- Sarah Hudleston is a freelance writer.
- This article first appeared in?Curiosity,?a research magazine produced by?Wits Communications?and the?Research Office.
- Read more in the 18th issue, themed #Work, which delves into the evolving nature of work, shaped by societal shifts, technological advances, and equity challenges.