Study Group Problems

Value of Domestic Tourists in Travel and Tourism Industry: Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Industry:

Tourism

Industry Representative:

Lombuso Precious Shabalala, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand & University of Mpumalanga

Moderator:

Problem Statement:

The problem to be investigated is how customised packages of tourism products/services can be utilised to mitigate the challenge of catering for the domestic market, since this market carries value.  Presently, tourism products/services are packaged in a manner that excludes the local market (mainly poor and working class) and favor the international market (those who can afford, mostly with a stronger currency).  The global pandemic known as COVID-19 which was first reported as a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China has no doubt impacted negatively the entire travel and tourism sector¡¯s value chain, and in fact shut it down. The outbreak occurs at the time when most countries, in particular developing economies, rely on the travel and tourism sector to create much needed jobs and earn income. Due to COVID-19, jobs were lost, salaries cut and more responsibility fell on the shoulders of those who continued to receive a full income. The contribution of the tourism sector to Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Gross National Production (GNP) is remarkable.  Since the world was forced to close international travel, in order to revive the travel and tourism industry intra-tourism, followed by inter-tourism, were opened with strict restrictions to adhere to by both tourists and the establishments/service providers.   Active domestic tourism becomes key towards the efforts to save the collapsing industry.  With no doubt, the value of domestic tourism is evident.

 In efforts to boost the economic development while protecting its citizens from COVID-19, the South African Ministry of tourism opened intra-provincial tourism, followed by inter-tourism.  During the Provincial Tourism Awareness held at Bourke¡¯s Luck Potholes (Graskop, Panorama route) on the 19th of September 2020 as part of Tourism month celebration activities, Mr Oupa Pilane, the president of the Kruger Lowveld Chamber of Business and Tourism (KLCBT) said that, there was not much usage of accommodation and tourist attractions during intra-tourism.  He further said that the number of visitors started to increase when inter-tourism was opened. This is evidence to the fact that local people are not taking part in tourism activities as expected.   This implies that Mpumalanga tourism is mostly supported and dependent on travelers or tourists coming from outside of the Province and international tourists. It has been established that in order to attract domestic tourists, in particular from the local areas, there is a need to comprehend the culture, accommodation, food and entertainment in the travel areas, and then package it in an affordable manner that will encourage the locals to start travelling and make use of the available products/services presented by the 8 sectors supporting or making up the travel and tourism industry. The presented evidence suggests that socio-economic factors have an influence on the decision making of the local people as the majority fall below the Poverty line and the province is dominated by rural areas. Affordable customised packages aimed at providing value for money for domestic market/tourists have the potential to revive the industry and significantly boost the country¡¯s economy.   

• How can the travel and tourism industry successfully implement affordable customised packages without running at a loss?
• Taking into account the socio-economic challenges faced by some of the local people, the innovative methods of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are needed in order to see a change.
• Which method/s can be utilised in order to encourage local people to tour their own Province?
• Development of a practical mathematical model that can be adopted in order to try to address the presented situation. The model must show how  to attract the local communities who are poor and working class to the  venues (game reserves, heritage sites, panorama route and many more) and tourism facilities (hotels, campsites, B&B).   This model could be applicable to other provinces or countries that share the same characteristics as Mpumalanga Province. 

In support of the 2020 Tourism Month (September) Theme ¡°Tourism and Rural Development¡±, the findings can be presented to the relevant authorities for consideration.  The findings will have the potential to contribute to the body of knowledge in a form of a research paper and also present possible suggestions to address the real life problem that local tourism is facing.

Keywords

: COVID-19, domestic tourists, local people, mathematical model, Mpumalanga Province, socio-economic, travel and tourism industry, Sustainable Development Goals.

Supporting Material

1. Creative tourism and local development https://www.scribd.com/document/401324175/Creative-Tourism-and-Local-Development-pdf  
2. Domestic tourist spending and economic development: The case of the North West Province https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03768350120083888
3. Information and Empowerment: The Keys to Achieving Sustainable Tourism https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236144370_Information_and_Empowerment_The_Keys_to_Achieving_Sustainable_Tourism
4. Restructuring the geography of domestic tourism in South Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bog-2015-0029
5. Sectors in tourism slide share https://www.slideshare.net/enairrasaint/sectors-in-tourism
6. Shopping satisfaction for domestic tourists https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6989(00)00005-9
7. Understanding the relationships between tourists' emotional experiences, perceived overall image, satisfaction, and intention to recommend. http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/12/23/0047287515620567

Presentation

2021 MISG Study Group Problem 1 Report

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2021 MISG Study Group Problem 1 Report Back

Developing a Southern African Tourism Climate Index

Industry:

Tourism

Industry Representative:

Jennifer Fitchett, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand

Moderator:

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Problem statement

In 1985 Mieczkowski developed the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), a method to quantify, classify and compare the climatic suitability of various destinations for tourism and to determine changes in climatic suitability through time. This index was based on expert opinions regarding the climatic factors which are of importance to tourists and the relative weighting thereof. In the past five years a proliferation of new indices have emerged: the Climate Index for Tourism, the Beach Tourism Index, the Holiday Climate Index (Urban) and Holiday Climate Index (Beach) and the Camping Climate Index. Each of these are argued to be more suitable than the Tourism Climate Index as they are based on the experiences of tourists, rather than expert opinion, yet each rely on only the experiences of tourists in the Northern Hemisphere.

This problem involves developing a Southern African Tourism Climate Index based on the experiences of tourists. These have been studied over the past 7 years through questionnaires, interviews and the coding of TripAdvisor reviews. These data will be available to you. The index will need to be appropriate to the tourist expectation of southern Africa (sun, sea and nature), be operational using the regularly collected meteorological variables in southern Africa and produce output measures of climatetic suitability that are consistent with the experiences of tourists.

Supporting Material:

Exploring the climate sensitivity of tourists to South Africa through TripAdvisor

An assessment of the climatic suitability of Afriski Mountain Resort for outdoor tourism using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI)

Climate suitability for tourism in South Africa

An analysis of factors affecting tourists¡¯ accounts of weather in South Africa

Tourists¡¯ reviews of weather in five Indian Ocean islands

Presentation:

MISG 2021 Study Group Problem 2 Presentation

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MISG 2021 Study Group Problem 2 Report-back Presentation

Problem 3. Masks and the spread of droplets and airborne virions

Industry:

Medical

Industry Representative:

Alex Welte, South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, Western Cape.

Moderator:

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Problem Statement

Although quite a lot of work has been done to understand the effects of masks on the spread of infectious respiratory droplets and airborne pathogens, it is a complex subject and there are numerous questions to which there are no clear answers, or even solid heuristics. Currently, in the era of Covid 19, there is increased interest in the utility of masks to reduce the spread of infections.

This pitch proposes several avenues of investigation ¨C suggesting that potential investigators choose something that appears amenable and interesting. First ¨C further background:

There is considerable disagreement on the utility of different types of masks, although there are solid medical engineering type studies which indicate air and droplet flow under a variety of conditions, including normal breathing, coughing and sneezing, while wearing various barriers or none at all. Some argue that masks with ¡®vents¡¯ for exhaling, which are designed specifically to protect the wearer, offer little protection to others against possible pathogens exhaled by the wearer, while some argue that masks provide little protection either way. Clear shields are more comfortable to wear for some people, and they certainly improve the quality of contact, most especially for people using lip reading as part of their communication strategy.

There is some evidence about the size of droplets which are both:

1. sufficiently large to be colonised by an infectious dose of virus or other pathogens (TB is spread by fully fledged bacterium, and is MUCH larger than a virus); and
2. sufficiently small to remain airborne long enough to be inhaled by someone else passing through the space a few seconds/minutes later.

One possible investigation could be to explore regimes between no barrier and an impermeable barrier at some (tunable) distance from the face. One can consider the fate of droplets/particles of various sizes as they are exhaled in the presence of a tunable barrier (caught in/on the barrier, expelled through the barrier, expelled around the barrier). One can consider the difference between normal conversation and shouting or singing. It might be possible to provide specific guidance on practical topics like the importance of a good fit, the importance of the types of materials in masks, the utility of solid shields, the relative importance of masks for people who are breathing normally, versus people who are coughing or sneezing, etc.

I am happy to support a group trying to work on this problem, but frankly have not particular expertise. Perhaps I can provide some orientation to the biology and epidemiology - from the point of view of someone who understands modelling in general, though not particularly fluid dynamics at anything beyond the most trivial level.

Supporting Material:

À×ËÙÌåÓý_À×ËÙÌåÓýÖ±²¥ Protection Methods: masks, social distancing

On respiratory droplets and face masks

How to design the perfect face mask ¨C the effect of compressibility on filters

The effect of compressibility on the behaviour of filter media

Optimising dead-end cake filtration using poroelasticity theory

Presentation

Masks, Air, Droplets and Pathogens

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MISG 2021 Study Group Problem 3 Report Back Presentation

Problem 4. Diffuser recycle rate

Industry:

Sugar Cane Processing

Industrial Representative:

Richard Loubser, Sugar Milling Research Institute NPC, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.

Moderator:

À×ËÙÌåÓý_À×ËÙÌåÓýÖ±²¥ Moderator:

Problem Statement:

Sugar is extracted from shredded sugarcane using a counter current leaching process in a process unit called a diffuser. Shredded sugarcane with high sugar concentration enters the diffuser at one end and is drawn along the length of the diffuser, usually dragged by an arrangement of moving chains located under the bed of cane. Hot water, called imbibition, is poured onto the cane bed at the other end of the diffuser and percolates through the cane bed, leaching sucrose and other dissolved solids from the shredded cane.

It leaves the bed through a screen at the bottom and is collected in a tray. The juice is pumped forward to sprays above a point in the bed that is closer to the cane entry end, where it percolates through the bed and is collected in a tray adjacent to the first tray. The juice typically passes through 12 to 14 such stages, depending on the design of the diffuser. The concentration of sugar in the juice increases with each pass through the bed.

The objective of the diffuser design is to achieve flow that is as close to the ideal plug flow as possible. There are, however, limitations on how closely this can be achieved due to operational factors such as unsteady conditions and design factors that require a degree of recycle. Healthy cane will typically have 15% dissolved solids, 15% fibre (insoluble solids) and 70% water. Factories aim to add less than 300 % imbibition on fibre (i.e. 3 tonnes added water per tonne fibre in cane) to extract the sugar, such that the total water added is less than half the total mass of cane added. Shredded cane can absorb water so that its total water content is 85% of the total mass. A 300% imbibition rate, however, will only raise the water on cane to 79%. Therefore, without the total amount of water in the bed being increased through recycle, all the imbibition will be absorbed by the cane and little or no juice would be extracted without an additional mechanical squeezing step.

Mass transfer of sugar between the cane and the juice can only occur when there is good contact between the cane and the juice. Mass transfer is improved by increasing the liquid hold-up in the cane bed to increase the amount of cane surface in contact with liquid at any time. This is achieved by increasing the total amount of juice added to the top of the bed at each stage. Recycling of juice at a stage level is employed to increase the total juice flow per stage without increasing the total imbibition added to the diffuser. The more recycle used, the greater the amount of juice in each stage. However, recycle results in lateral dispersion of dissolved solids, thereby reducing the efficiency of counter-current extraction. Too much recycle may result in flooding of the cane bed, where the rate of juice addition exceeds the rate at which juice can percolate through the bed, leading to pooling and lateral flow of juice on the top surface of the bed, with further negative consequences to the dissolved solids concentration profile. The operational object for the diffuser is to optimise the dissolved solids extraction through maintaining a sufficiently high percolation rate without compromising the dissolved solids concentration profile in the juice along the length of the diffuser. The flow rate of the juice in the bed needs to be maximised while minimising the degradation of the plug flow requirement.

The amount of recycle depends on several factors:

Controllable

• Height of the bed
• Horizontal bed speed
• Position of the sprays

Non-controllable

• Percolation rate (permeability)
• Length of the stage
• Amount of imbibition

A value for recycle of 30% is typically recommended but no scientific justification can be found for this value.

Questions to be explored:

1. What is optimum recycle fraction that should be used as a target for setting and controlling a diffuser?
2. Can a relationship between the controllable variables and noncontrollable variables be derived that will enable the factory to achieve the optimum recycle?
3. 
   https://www.sugarprocesstech.com/mills-diffusers-technology-sugar-industry/

Presentation

MISG 2021 Study Group Problem 4 Presentation

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MISG 2021 Study Group Problem 4 Report-back Presentation