Stop fiddling and let’s get moving
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Respected public intellectual finds gaping holes in president’s recovery plan
Founder and executive director of the Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE), Ann Bernstein (BA 1976, BA Hons 1977) offered a group of more than 250 alumni a sobering view of the state of South Africa’s economy on 28 October, a few hours before the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, delivered his medium-term budget.
From one of South Africa’s leading development think tanks, Bernstein has years of experience focusing on inclusive economic growth, jobs, education, skills, land reform, cities and the role of business. Her talk titled “Recovery Strategies – SA and economic recovery: Quo Vadis?” provided a candid and compelling assessment: “We have an escalating economic, fiscal, jobs and social crises. All of which have been exacerbated by poor decision making and implementation. 
“We have a cabinet where different ministries approach South Africa’s challenges in different ways: The minister of finance wants to cut expenditure, the minster of public enterprises wants to fund SAA, the minister of social development wants a basic income grant for every single adult.
“We have State capacity that is demonstrably weak and riddled with corruption. There’s been no significant progress on the reform agenda. In fact, this government, nearly three years old, has a growing credibility gap.”
“There is insufficient sense of urgency to get moving and get South Africa out of the terrible situation that we’re in. I see a country adrift, desperate for bold leadership, direction and action.”
She shared CDE’s key insights over the past six months. She suggested, in order for South Africa to move forward, there needs to be an acknowledgment of what brought the country to this point. “Real honesty is required about what has gone wrong and why.” She suggested that this acknowledgement could be used as an essential foundation to start building a bridge out of the disaster.
“It’s not just COVID-19 and the lockdown, but it’s 12 years – probably more – of misrule by the government. It’s not just the Guptas and State Capture, but it’s bad policy decisions on almost every front. We have an approach to markets, to investment that has led to economic decline and a junk-status rating.”
She offered a brief summary of the President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recovery plan, released on 15 October, outlining its contradictions and shortcomings. “The plan says we want to cut red tape, but if you read the document there are subordinate goals for every programme, especially set aside procurement processes, which will increase red tape enormously.” She said: “The core proposals rather happily envisage an increase in the costs of doing business in South Africa.”
A key component of the plan was an infrastructure drive, but Bernstein questioned if it made sense. “Is it a growth strategy?” She suggested the plan is not a silver bullet, but “everything is going to depend on building the right infrastructure that supports growth (and pays for itself); at the right price (so the ability to pay for itself is increased); that we have the resources to maintain it. This is not clear in the plan at all.”
She stressed the need for greater